Péter Gulácsi’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Péter Gulácsi was 0.42 goals over at home and 0.06 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.42 and 0.06, a difference of 0.36. Both Champions League games were away.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
+0.42
away
+0.06
01
A +0.35 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.42
0.06
01
A +0.36 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 0.75 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs Real Betis | L | 1.78 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Málaga | W | -0.50 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Levante | W | -0.36 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Real Madrid | L | 0.14 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Elche | T | 0.14 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Liverpool | L | -0.80 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Valencia | W | 0.71 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Espanyol | L | 0.10 | -0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.