Pablo Durán’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Pablo Durán was 0.15 goals over at home and 0.40 goals under away in 2026-27, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.67 and 0.00, a difference of 0.67. Both games vs top-half teams were at home. Both games vs bottom-half teams were away.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.15
away
−0.40
-0.500.51
A +0.55 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.67
0.00
00.511.52
A +0.67 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Valencia | T | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | vs Osasuna | L | 0 | 0.59 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Real Sociedad | T | 0 | 0.46 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | @ Getafe | T | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 2 | 0.66 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Elche | T | 0 | 0.42 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Real Betis | T | 0 | 0.29 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Rayo Vallecano | L | 0 | 0.61 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.