Omar Marmoush’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Omar Marmoush was 0.04 goals under at home and 0.18 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 0.20 and 0.00, a difference of 0.20.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.04
away
−0.18
00.5
A +0.14 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.20
0.00
00.51
A +0.20 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Newcastle United | L | 0 | 0.26 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nottingham Forest | T | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Everton | T | 0 | 0.26 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Aston Villa | L | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Manchester United | T | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 1 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Chelsea | W | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Crystal Palace | W | 0 | 0.30 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.