Olivier Giroud’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Olivier Giroud was 0.02 goals over at home and 0.12 goals over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.29 and 0.25, a difference of 0.04. Expected was 0.13 goals higher at home than away. Both league games after a Champions League game were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.02
away
+0.12
00.5
A −0.10 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.29
0.25
00.51
A +0.04 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Angers | W | 1 | 0.20 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | T | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Toulouse | W | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | vs Real Betis | L | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Troyes | W | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Nice | L | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Le Havre AC | W | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Brest | T | 1 | 0.31 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Galatasaray | L | 0 | 0.40 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Lens | W | 1 | 0.27 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 30%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.