Nicolas Jackson’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Nicolas Jackson was 0.29 goals over at home and 0.00 goals over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.86 and 0.50, a difference of 0.36. Both games vs top-half teams were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.29
away
+0.00
-2-101
A +0.29 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.86
0.50
00.511.52
A +0.36 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Hull City | T | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ Club Brugge | W | 1 | 0.94 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Nottingham Forest | L | 0 | 0.39 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Tottenham Hotspur | W | 1 | 0.27 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Brentford | T | 1 | 0.48 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Fenerbahce | W | 2 | 0.06 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Newcastle United | W | 0 | 0.51 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Viking FK | W | 0 | 2.06 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Manchester City | W | 2 | 0.48 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Fulham | T | 1 | 0.31 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 80%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.