Niclas Füllkrug’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Niclas Füllkrug was 0.74 goals over at home and 0.71 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 1.25 and 1.00, a difference of 0.25. Both games vs bottom-half teams were at home.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.74
away
+0.71
01
A +0.03 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.25
1.00
00.511.52
A +0.25 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ SC Freiburg | L | 0 | 0.44 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 1 | 0.57 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ FC Cologne | T | 1 | 0.28 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs FC Augsburg | W | 1 | 0.55 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Borussia Dortmund | T | 1 | 0.01 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs SC Paderborn 07 | T | 2 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mainz | W | 2 | 0.44 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs TSG Hoffenheim | W | 1 | 0.71 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 69%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.