Matz Sels’ goals prevented at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Matz Sels was 0.48 goals under at home and 0.15 goals under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 5. The plain averages are -0.48 and -0.15, a difference of 0.33.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
−0.48
away
−0.15
-0.500.5
A −0.33 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.48
-0.15
-0.500.5
A −0.33 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs Leeds United | L | -0.27 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Liverpool | T | -0.55 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | T | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | W | 0.71 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Coventry City | L | -0.72 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Crystal Palace | L | 0.05 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L | -0.91 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Ipswich Town | T | -0.31 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Brentford | L | -0.63 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.