Mario Götze’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Mario Götze was 0.00 goals over at home and 0.00 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.00, a difference of 0.00. Both games vs bottom-half teams were at home.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
0.00
away
0.00
0
A 0.00 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.00
0.00
0
A 0.00 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs FC Augsburg | L | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Mainz | W | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs SC Freiburg | T | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs FC Cologne | W | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Hamburg SV | W | 0 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.