Marco Carnesecchi’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Marco Carnesecchi was 0.24 goals over at home and 0.01 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.24 and 0.01, a difference of 0.23.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
+0.24
away
+0.01
-101
A +0.23 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.24
0.01
-101
A +0.23 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Sassuolo | W | 1.67 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vs Bologna | W | 0.99 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ AS Roma | L | 0.96 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Cagliari | L | 0.18 | -0.01 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Juventus | L | -0.24 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs Venezia | W | -0.03 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ AC Milan | L | -0.17 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Frosinone | T | -1.62 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ Fiorentina | T | -0.52 | -0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.