Ludovic Ajorque’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Ludovic Ajorque was 0.51 goals over at home and 0.33 goals under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.75 and 0.00, a difference of 0.75.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.51
away
−0.33
-0.500.5
A +0.84 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 7 times in 100.
plain
0.75
0.00
00.51
A +0.75 difference in goals at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Le Mans | T | 0 | 0.36 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Toulouse | T | 1 | 0.30 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Le Havre AC | W | 0 | 0.32 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ AJ Auxerre | L | 0 | 0.52 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Angers | W | 1 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Lille | T | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs Nice | L | 1 | 0.18 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 38%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.