Lewis Dunk’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, Lewis Dunk was 0.03 goals under at home and 0.19 goals over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.20, a difference of 0.20. Both games vs top-half teams were away.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.03
away
+0.19
00.5
A −0.22 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 5 times in 100.
plain
0.00
0.20
00.51
A −0.20 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Aston Villa | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Chelsea | L | 0 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Leeds United | T | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Coventry City | W | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Sunderland | W | 0 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Crystal Palace | W | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Liverpool | L | 0 | 0.01 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Manchester City | W | 0 | 0.01 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 20%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.