Jorge de Frutos’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Jorge de Frutos was 0.25 goals over at home and 0.17 goals under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.50 and 0.00, a difference of 0.50.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.25
away
−0.17
01
A +0.42 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.50
0.00
00.511.52
A +0.50 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | @ Sevilla | L | 0 | 0.21 | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | vs Alavés | T | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @ Barcelona | L | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 0 | 0.35 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Osasuna | T | 0 | 0.26 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ Getafe | T | 0 | 0.13 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Elche | L | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | W | 2 | 0.14 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 25%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.