Jordan Henderson’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Jordan Henderson was 0.73 goals over at home and 0.07 goals under away in 2026-27, 2 games against 2. The plain averages are 1.00 and 0.00, a difference of 1.00. Both games vs bottom-half teams were at home.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.73
away
−0.07
00.511.5
A +0.80 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
0.00
00.511.52
A +1.00 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Brentford | L | 0 | 0.13 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs AFC Bournemouth | W | 2 | 0.27 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Everton | W | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 | 0.27 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 67%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.