João Pedro’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, João Pedro was 1.18 goals over at home and 0.18 goals over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.33 and 0.33, a difference of 1.00.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+1.18
away
+0.18
01
A +0.99 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.33
0.33
00.511.52
A +1.00 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | @ Fulham | W | 1 | 0.15 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 1 | 0.11 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Hull City | T | 1 | 0.24 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs AFC Bournemouth | W | 2 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Everton | W | 0 | 0.25 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 63%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.