Janik Haberer’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Janik Haberer was 0.03 goals under at home and 0.26 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 0.20 and 0.33, a difference of 0.13. Expected was 0.16 goals higher at home than away.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.03
away
+0.26
00.5
A −0.29 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 8 times in 100.
plain
0.20
0.33
00.51
A −0.13 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | T | 0 | 0.33 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Bayer Leverkusen | L | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Schalke 04 | L | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Bayern Munich | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs SV Elversberg | W | 0 | 0.33 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Borussia Dortmund | T | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ FC Augsburg | T | 1 | 0.06 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs FC Cologne | T | 1 | 0.18 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.