James Tarkowski’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, James Tarkowski was 0.19 goals under at home and 0.12 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.25, a difference of 0.25.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.19
away
+0.12
00.5
A −0.31 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
plain
0.00
0.25
00.51
A −0.25 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs Crystal Palace | W | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ AFC Bournemouth | T | 1 | 0.19 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Manchester United | T | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Tottenham Hotspur | T | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Ipswich Town | W | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Hull City | T | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Chelsea | L | 0 | 0.01 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.14 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.