Iñaki Williams’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Iñaki Williams was 0.20 goals over at home and 0.24 goals under away in 2026-27, 6 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.50 and 0.00, a difference of 0.50. Both games vs top-half teams were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.20
away
−0.24
00.5
A +0.44 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.50
0.00
00.51
A +0.50 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs Sevilla | L | 0 | 0.37 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | @ Barcelona | L | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Celta Vigo | W | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Atlético Madrid | W | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Elche | T | 1 | 0.34 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Alavés | T | 0 | 0.43 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Valencia | T | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Levante | L | 0 | 0.41 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Getafe | W | 1 | 0.18 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | W | 1 | 0.34 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 38%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.