Igor Thiago’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Igor Thiago was 0.18 goals over at home and 0.10 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.40 and 0.00, a difference of 0.40.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.18
away
−0.10
00.5
A +0.28 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.40
0.00
00.51
A +0.40 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | W | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Leeds United | T | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Sunderland | T | 0 | 0.30 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ AFC Bournemouth | T | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs Chelsea | W | 1 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | T | 0 | 0.13 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Liverpool | L | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Hull City | T | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Nottingham Forest | W | 1 | 0.16 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.