Iago Aspas’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Iago Aspas was 0.07 goals under at home and 0.26 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.20 and 0.00, a difference of 0.20. Both games vs top-half teams were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.07
away
−0.26
00.5
A +0.19 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.20
0.00
00.51
A +0.20 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Valencia | T | 0 | 0.17 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | vs Osasuna | L | 1 | 0.39 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Athletic Club | L | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Real Sociedad | T | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | @ Getafe | T | 0 | 0.17 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Málaga | T | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Alavés | W | 0 | 0.36 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Real Betis | T | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Rayo Vallecano | L | 0 | 0.41 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.