Gustavo Varela’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Gustavo Varela was 0.68 goals over at home and 0.17 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 5. The plain averages are 1.50 and 0.60, a difference of 0.90.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.68
away
+0.17
01
A +0.52 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.50
0.60
00.511.52
A +0.90 difference in goals at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 14 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Internazionale | L | 1 | 0.45 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Udinese | L | 1 | 0.82 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Lecce | L | 0 | 0.85 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs Sassuolo | W | 2 | 1.25 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Lazio | L | 0 | 0.32 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs Cagliari | W | 2 | 0.51 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Torino | L | 1 | 0.32 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Napoli | L | 1 | 0.69 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Bologna | L | 1 | 0.24 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 82%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.