Gregor Kobel’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Gregor Kobel was 0.25 goals over at home and 0.36 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.24 and 0.36, a difference of 0.12.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
+0.25
away
+0.36
01
A −0.11 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.24
0.36
01
A −0.12 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Hamburg SV | W | 0.56 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ TSG Hoffenheim | W | -0.68 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W | 0.61 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs SC Paderborn 07 | W | 0 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ VfB Stuttgart | W | 1.29 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Werder Bremen | T | -0.86 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Bodo/Glimt | L | 0.17 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ 1. FC Union Berlin | T | 0 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Sabah FK | W | 0.21 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W | 0.90 | -0.01 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Bayern Munich | T | 1.16 | -0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.