Gerard Moreno’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Gerard Moreno was 0.03 goals over at home and 0.05 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 7. The plain averages are 0.17 and 0.14, a difference of 0.02. Expected was 0.04 goals higher at home than away.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.03
away
+0.05
00.5
A −0.01 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.17
0.14
00.51
A +0.02 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | T | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | T | 1 | 0.03 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Alavés | L | 0 | 0.17 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Deportivo | L | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs Real Betis | L | 1 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Levante | W | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Napoli | W | 0 | 0.13 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Elche | T | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Liverpool | L | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Valencia | W | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Espanyol | L | 0 | 0.14 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 17%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.