Georges Mikautadze’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Georges Mikautadze was 0.01 goals under at home and 0.12 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 8. The plain averages are 0.33 and 0.38, a difference of 0.04. Expected was 0.09 goals higher at home than away.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.01
away
+0.12
-0.500.5
A −0.13 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.33
0.38
00.51
A −0.04 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | T | 0 | 0.56 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | T | 1 | 0.08 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Alavés | L | 0 | 0.42 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Deportivo | L | 0 | 0.26 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs Real Betis | L | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Málaga | W | 0 | 0.32 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Levante | W | 1 | 0.48 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.21 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Napoli | W | 1 | 0.32 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Elche | T | 0 | 0.41 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Liverpool | L | 1 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Valencia | W | 1 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Espanyol | L | 0 | 0.34 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 42%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.