Franco Mastantuono’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Franco Mastantuono was 0.32 goals under at home and 0.49 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.75, a difference of 0.75.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.32
away
+0.49
012
A −0.81 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 11 times in 100.
plain
0.00
0.75
0123
A −0.75 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | @ AS Roma | L | 0 | 0.21 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Frosinone | L | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Torino | L | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Venezia | W | 3 | 0.29 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Napoli | T | 0 | 0.45 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Genoa | L | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Como | L | 0 | 0.28 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Internazionale | L | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Atalanta | T | 0 | 0.30 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.