Enes Ünal’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Enes Ünal was 0.01 goals over at home and 0.24 goals under away in 2026-27, 6 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.33 and 0.00, a difference of 0.33.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.01
away
−0.24
00.5
A +0.25 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.33
0.00
00.51
A +0.33 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | @ Alavés | L | 0 | 0.34 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 1 | 0.50 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @ Osasuna | L | 0 | 0.38 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | T | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Deportivo | T | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Real Betis | L | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Málaga | W | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | T | 0 | 0.43 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Athletic Club | L | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Sevilla | W | 1 | 0.27 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.