Elye Wahi’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Elye Wahi was 0.29 goals over at home and 0.13 goals under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 1.00 and 0.50, a difference of 0.50.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.29
away
−0.13
-1012
A +0.42 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
0.50
0123
A +0.50 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Paris FC | L | 0 | 0.49 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Le Mans | T | 1 | 0.84 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ AJ Auxerre | L | 0 | 1.11 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Lille | W | 0 | 0.34 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Strasbourg | W | 0 | 0.91 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Lyon | L | 1 | 0.26 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Brest | W | 1 | 0.66 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Stade Rennais | W | 3 | 0.76 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 75%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.