David Soria’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, David Soria was 0.36 goals over at home and 0.65 goals under away in 2026-27, 6 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.36 and -0.65, a difference of 1.01.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
+0.36
away
−0.65
-20
A +1.01 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 18 times in 100.
plain
0.36
-0.65
-20
A +1.01 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | @ Alavés | L | -0.43 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 0.44 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @ Osasuna | L | 0.27 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | T | 0.29 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Deportivo | T | -0.33 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Real Betis | L | 0.90 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Málaga | W | 0.94 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Barcelona | L | -0.78 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | T | 1.02 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Athletic Club | L | -3.23 | 0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Sevilla | W | -0.20 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.