David Raya’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, David Raya was 0.09 goals over at home and 0.11 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 7. The plain averages are 0.09 and 0.11, a difference of 0.03.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
+0.09
away
+0.11
-10
A −0.03 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.09
0.11
-10
A −0.03 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 0.13 | -0.00 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | W | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Chelsea | W | -0.06 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ Napoli | W | 0.56 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Sunderland | W | 0.89 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Brighton & Hove Albion | L | -1.23 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Leeds United | W | -0.07 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Lille | W | 0 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Nottingham Forest | W | 0.12 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Bayern Munich | T | 0.46 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Everton | W | 0.44 | -0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Liverpool | W | 0 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.