Cole Palmer’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Cole Palmer was 0.31 goals over at home and 0.24 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.40 and 0.25, a difference of 0.15. All 3 games vs bottom-half teams were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.31
away
+0.24
00.51
A +0.07 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.40
0.25
00.51
A +0.15 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | @ Fulham | W | 1 | -0.02 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 1 | 0.02 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Hull City | T | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Brentford | L | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs AFC Bournemouth | W | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Everton | W | 0 | 0.01 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Manchester United | W | 1 | 0.10 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 27%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.