Charles De Ketelaere’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Charles De Ketelaere was 0.09 goals under at home and 0.19 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.25, a difference of 0.25.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.09
away
+0.19
00.5
A −0.28 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 7 times in 100.
plain
0.00
0.25
00.51
A −0.25 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Sassuolo | W | 0 | 0.17 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vs Bologna | W | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ AS Roma | L | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Cagliari | L | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Juventus | L | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs Venezia | W | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ AC Milan | L | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Frosinone | T | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ Fiorentina | T | 1 | 0.12 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 11%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.