Can Uzun’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Can Uzun was 0.22 goals under at home and 0.21 goals over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.50, a difference of 0.50.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.22
away
+0.21
01
A −0.43 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.00
0.50
00.511.52
A −0.50 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ 1. FC Union Berlin | T | 0 | 0.54 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs FC Augsburg | L | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Mainz | W | 2 | 0.28 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs SC Freiburg | T | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ RB Leipzig | L | 0 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Hamburg SV | W | 0 | 0.18 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 67%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.