Bukayo Saka’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Bukayo Saka was 0.18 goals over at home and 0.09 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.50 and 0.33, a difference of 0.17. Both league games after a Champions League game were away.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.18
away
+0.09
00.5
A +0.09 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.50
0.33
00.51
A +0.17 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 1 | 0.28 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | W | 1 | 0.17 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Chelsea | W | 0 | 0.46 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ Napoli | W | 0 | 0.43 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Sunderland | W | 1 | 0.37 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Leeds United | W | 0 | 0.28 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Lille | W | 1 | 0.26 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Nottingham Forest | W | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Bayern Munich | T | 0 | 0.15 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 57%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.