Bernd Leno’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Bernd Leno was 0.46 goals under at home and 0.07 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 5. The plain averages are -0.46 and 0.07, a difference of 0.53. Both games vs bottom-half teams were away.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
−0.46
away
+0.07
-10
A −0.53 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.46
0.07
-10
A −0.53 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | vs Chelsea | L | -0.69 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Sunderland | L | -0.14 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Crystal Palace | L | -1.42 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Liverpool | T | 0.40 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Manchester United | T | 0.28 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ipswich Town | L | -0.56 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Hull City | W | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Coventry City | W | 0.62 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | T | 0.04 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.