Ben Davies’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, Ben Davies was 0.78 goals over at home and 0.01 goals over away in 2026-27, 1 game against 1. The plain averages are 1.00 and 0.00, a difference of 1.00.
One game at home is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.78
away
+0.01
00.20.40.6
plain
1.00
0.00
00.51
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 1 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Chelsea | W | 0 | -0.01 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.