Amine Adli’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Amine Adli was 0.39 goals over at home and 0.09 goals under away in 2026-27, 2 games against 1. The plain averages are 0.50 and 0.00, a difference of 0.50.
One game away is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.39
away
−0.09
00.5
plain
0.50
0.00
00.51
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Sunderland | W | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Manchester United | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Leeds United | W | 1 | 0.06 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 20%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.