Alphonso Davies’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, Alphonso Davies was 0.34 goals over at home and 0.03 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.40 and 0.00, a difference of 0.40. Both league games after a Champions League game were away.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.34
away
−0.03
00.5
A +0.37 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.40
0.00
00.51
A +0.40 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | vs VfB Stuttgart | W | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Schalke 04 | T | 0 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Bodo/Glimt | W | 1 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ SV Elversberg | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs 1. FC Union Berlin | W | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ FC Augsburg | T | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Viking FK | T | 0 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Arsenal | T | 1 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ SC Freiburg | W | 0 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Borussia Dortmund | T | 0 | 0.09 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.