Álex Jiménez’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, Álex Jiménez was 0.10 goals over at home and 0.20 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.25 and 0.25, a difference of 0.00. Expected was 0.10 goals higher at home than away.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.10
away
+0.20
00.5
A −0.10 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.25
0.25
00.51
A 0.00 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | @ AS Roma | L | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Frosinone | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Venezia | W | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Napoli | T | 1 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Genoa | L | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Como | L | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Internazionale | L | 1 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Atalanta | T | 0 | 0.31 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.