Adrien Rabiot’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Adrien Rabiot was 0.53 goals over at home and 0.40 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.75 and 0.50, a difference of 0.25.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.53
away
+0.40
00.5
A +0.14 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.75
0.50
00.51
A +0.25 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Torino | W | 1 | 0.22 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | vs Venezia | W | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Juventus | T | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Lazio | T | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Lecce | W | 1 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Sassuolo | T | 1 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Atalanta | W | 1 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Internazionale | W | 1 | 0.20 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 56%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.