Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Juventus @ Fiorentina

Sun, Nov 8 · Serie A · Stadio Artemio Franchi

The odds have it Fiorentina 1.20, Juventus 1.61.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Juventus at Fiorentina: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameJuventus10 gamesFiorentina9 games
−0.30−0.35
−0.60+0.66
−0.06+0.05
−0.76−0.03
+1.0+1.6
−4.8−1.1
+0.32−0.84

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

The series

If you squint

  • After an international break, Fiorentina’s yellow cards are 1.1 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • At home, Fiorentina’s shots are 3.2 over expected in 5 games. A +5.1 difference in shots over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 20 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
May 17, 2026at JuventusFiorentina 2, Juventus 0
Nov 22, 2025at FiorentinaFiorentina 1, Juventus 1
Mar 16, 2025at FiorentinaFiorentina 3, Juventus 0
Dec 29, 2024at JuventusFiorentina 2, Juventus 2
Apr 7, 2024at JuventusJuventus 1, Fiorentina 0
Nov 5, 2023at FiorentinaJuventus 1, Fiorentina 0
Feb 12, 2023at JuventusJuventus 1, Fiorentina 0
Sep 3, 2022at FiorentinaFiorentina 1, Juventus 1
May 21, 2022at FiorentinaFiorentina 2, Juventus 0
Nov 6, 2021at JuventusJuventus 1, Fiorentina 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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