Sassuolo @ AS Roma

Sat, Nov 7 · Serie A · Olimpico

The odds have it AS Roma 2.64, Sassuolo 0.98.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Sassuolo at AS Roma: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Sassuolo9 games	AS Roma13 games
	+0.04	+1.06
	+0.72	−0.36
	−0.01	+0.52
	+0.05	−0.20
	+0.2	+2.6
	+1.5	−2.9
	−0.37	+0.67

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

The series

AS Roma leads the series 13–2–9 since 2013-14. AS Roma has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

AS Roma has won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →
At home, AS Roma’s expected goals are 0.56 over expected in 7 games. A +0.72 difference in expected goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 7 times in 100.thinthe split →
On the road, Sassuolo’s points are 1.03 under expected in 5 games. A −1.67 difference in points over expected away vs at home is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were away and it comes up 6 times in 100.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Jan 10, 2026	at AS Roma	AS Roma 2, Sassuolo 0
Oct 26, 2025	at Sassuolo	AS Roma 1, Sassuolo 0
Mar 17, 2024	at AS Roma	AS Roma 1, Sassuolo 0
Dec 3, 2023	at Sassuolo	AS Roma 2, Sassuolo 1
Mar 12, 2023	at AS Roma	Sassuolo 4, AS Roma 3
Nov 9, 2022	at Sassuolo	AS Roma 1, Sassuolo 1
Feb 13, 2022	at Sassuolo	AS Roma 2, Sassuolo 2
Sep 12, 2021	at AS Roma	AS Roma 2, Sassuolo 1
Apr 3, 2021	at Sassuolo	AS Roma 2, Sassuolo 2
Dec 6, 2020	at AS Roma	AS Roma 0, Sassuolo 0

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
A game with no box score sits out.