Putting Up Numbers· Soccer

Sabah FK @ Viking FK

Wed, Nov 4 · Champions League · Viking Stadion

The odds have it Viking FK 2.58, Sabah FK 1.22.Expected goals from DraftKings’ closing odds on ESPN’s match pages, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Sabah FK at Viking FK: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameSabah FK3 gamesViking FK3 games
−0.67+0.19
+0.47+0.92
−0.32−0.71
+1.82+0.62
−2.4−4.8
+5.0+4.2
−0.50−0.84

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the ten biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

If you squint

  • At home, Viking FK’s goals are 1.65 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • On the road, Sabah FK’s goals conceded are 2.15 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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