Western Kentucky’s third-down conversion rate with Rodney Tisdale Jr. and without Rodney Tisdale Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Kentucky was 1.6 percentage points over with Rodney Tisdale Jr. and 1.4 percentage points over without Rodney Tisdale Jr. over its last 25 games, 8 games against 11. The plain averages are 44.1% and 42.5%, a difference of 1.6%. Both ranked opponents were without Rodney Tisdale Jr.. Both top-10 opponents were without Rodney Tisdale Jr..
Rodney Tisdale Jr., quarterback: 2,315 passing yards, 335 pass attempts and 219 completions in 14 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +0.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Rodney Tisdale Jr. vs without Rodney Tisdale Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +1.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Rodney Tisdale Jr. vs without Rodney Tisdale Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Liberty | L | 60.0% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 35.0% | 42.9% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @Jacksonville State | L | 36.4% | 42.1% | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs James Madison (neutral) | L | 35.7% | 38.2% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 57.9% | 45.2% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsNNorth Alabama | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | 42.9% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 41.7% | 43.1% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Missouri State | W | 33.3% | 44.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ Delaware | W | 64.3% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs Florida International | L | 40.0% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | W | 46.7% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 43.8% | 44.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 42.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 26.7% | 38.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Jacksonville State | L | 40.0% | 42.3% | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Southern Miss (neutral) | W | 52.9% | 46.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Nevada | L | 35.3% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 40.0% | 34.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 26.7% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 54.5% | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @New Mexico State | L | 38.9% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vsMissouri State | W | 52.9% | 43.6% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @Sam Houston | W | 40.0% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vsDelaware | L | 28.6% | 42.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Alabama, Mercyhurst have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 21 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Rodney Tisdale Jr. nor without Rodney Tisdale Jr.: Rodney Tisdale Jr. had no game for the team that season, and sit out.