Western Kentucky’s third-down conversion rate with Rodney Tisdale Jr. and without Rodney Tisdale Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Kentucky was 0.3 percentage points under with Rodney Tisdale Jr. and 1.3 percentage points under without Rodney Tisdale Jr. in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 42.9% and 37.6%, a difference of 5.3%. Both ranked opponents were without Rodney Tisdale Jr.. Both top-10 opponents were without Rodney Tisdale Jr..
Rodney Tisdale Jr., quarterback: 883 passing yards, 123 pass attempts and 80 completions in 6 games this season.
3 games with Rodney Tisdale Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +1.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Rodney Tisdale Jr. vs without Rodney Tisdale Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +5.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Rodney Tisdale Jr. vs without Rodney Tisdale Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nevada | L | 35.3% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 40.0% | 34.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 26.7% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 54.5% | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | L | 38.9% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 52.9% | 43.6% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 40.0% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Delaware | L | 28.6% | 42.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.