Western Kentucky’s third-down conversion rate with Brock Glenn and without Brock Glenn
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Kentucky was 1.3 percentage points under with Brock Glenn and 0.3 percentage points under without Brock Glenn over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 37.6% and 42.9%, a difference of 5.3%. Both ranked opponents were with Brock Glenn. Both top-10 opponents were with Brock Glenn.
Brock Glenn, quarterback: 887 passing yards, 165 pass attempts and 92 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
3 games without Brock Glenn is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −1.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Brock Glenn vs without Brock Glenn is about what you’d expect.
A −5.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Brock Glenn vs without Brock Glenn is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Liberty | L | 60.0% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 35.0% | 42.9% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @Jacksonville State | L | 36.4% | 42.1% | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs James Madison (neutral) | L | 35.7% | 38.2% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 57.9% | 45.2% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsNNorth Alabama | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | 42.9% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 41.7% | 43.1% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Missouri State | W | 33.3% | 44.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ Delaware | W | 64.3% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs Florida International | L | 40.0% | 44.0% | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | W | 46.7% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 43.8% | 44.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 42.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 26.7% | 38.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Jacksonville State | L | 40.0% | 42.3% | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Southern Miss (neutral) | W | 52.9% | 46.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Nevada | L | 35.3% | 34.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 40.0% | 34.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 26.7% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 54.5% | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @New Mexico State | L | 38.9% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vsMissouri State | W | 52.9% | 43.6% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @Sam Houston | W | 40.0% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vsDelaware | L | 28.6% | 42.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Brock Glenn nor without Brock Glenn: Brock Glenn had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.