Western Kentucky’s points with Brock Glenn and without Brock Glenn
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Kentucky was 0.9 points under with Brock Glenn and 9.3 points under without Brock Glenn over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 18.2 and 26.3, a difference of 8.1. Both ranked opponents were with Brock Glenn. Both top-10 opponents were with Brock Glenn.
Brock Glenn, quarterback: 887 passing yards, 165 pass attempts and 92 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
3 games without Brock Glenn is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A +8.4 difference in points over expected with Brock Glenn vs without Brock Glenn is about what you’d expect.
A −8.1 difference in points with Brock Glenn vs without Brock Glenn is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Liberty | L | 21 | 23.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 19 | 29.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | @Jacksonville State | L | 12 | 27.6 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs James Madison (neutral) | L | 17 | 21.0 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 41 | 35.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsNNorth Alabama | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | 21 | 16.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 31 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Missouri State | W | 27 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ Delaware | W | 27 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs Florida International | L | 6 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | W | 28 | 22.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 35 | 30.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 42 | 31.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 10 | 13.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Jacksonville State | L | 34 | 25.5 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Southern Miss (neutral) | W | 27 | 28.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Nevada | L | 14 | 20.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 20 | 5.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 0 | 8.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 52 | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @New Mexico State | L | 13 | 25.2 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vsMissouri State | W | 34 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @Sam Houston | W | 16 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vsDelaware | L | 21 | 28.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Brock Glenn nor without Brock Glenn: Brock Glenn had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.