Western Kentucky’s points of margin with Rodney Tisdale Jr. and without Rodney Tisdale Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Kentucky was 23.2 points under with Rodney Tisdale Jr. and 3.8 points over without Rodney Tisdale Jr. in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are -3.7 and -13.6, a difference of 9.9. Expected was 12.6 points higher with Rodney Tisdale Jr. than without Rodney Tisdale Jr.. Both ranked opponents were without Rodney Tisdale Jr.. Both top-10 opponents were without Rodney Tisdale Jr..
Rodney Tisdale Jr., quarterback: 883 passing yards, 123 pass attempts and 80 completions in 6 games this season.
3 games with Rodney Tisdale Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −27.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Rodney Tisdale Jr. vs without Rodney Tisdale Jr. is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Rodney Tisdale Jr. and it comes up 12 times in 100.
A +9.9 difference in points of margin with Rodney Tisdale Jr. vs without Rodney Tisdale Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nevada | L | -35 | -8.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | -50 | -41.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | -38 | -35.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 45 | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | L | -21 | -0.8 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 21 | -2.2 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 13 | -5.7 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Delaware | L | -14 | -2.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.