Western Kentucky’s points of margin with Brock Glenn and without Brock Glenn
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Western Kentucky was 3.8 points over with Brock Glenn and 23.2 points under without Brock Glenn in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are -13.6 and -3.7, a difference of 9.9. Expected was 12.6 points lower with Brock Glenn than without Brock Glenn. Both ranked opponents were with Brock Glenn. Both top-10 opponents were with Brock Glenn.
Brock Glenn, quarterback: 887 passing yards, 165 pass attempts and 92 completions in 8 games this season.
3 games without Brock Glenn is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +27.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Brock Glenn vs without Brock Glenn is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brock Glenn and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A −9.9 difference in points of margin with Brock Glenn vs without Brock Glenn is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nevada | L | -35 | -8.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | -50 | -41.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | -38 | -35.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 45 | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | L | -21 | -0.8 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 21 | -2.2 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 13 | -5.7 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Delaware | L | -14 | -2.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.