Virginia’s third-down conversion rate with Solomon Beebe and without Solomon Beebe
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia was 9.0 percentage points under with Solomon Beebe and 4.4 percentage points under without Solomon Beebe in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 24.6% and 35.1%, a difference of 10.5%. Both ranked opponents were with Solomon Beebe. Both games while ranked were without Solomon Beebe. All 3 nonconference games were without Solomon Beebe.
Solomon Beebe, running back: 9 rushing yards, 4 carries and 5 receptions in 3 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −4.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Solomon Beebe vs without Solomon Beebe is about what you’d expect.
A −10.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Solomon Beebe vs without Solomon Beebe is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 21.4% | 37.3% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | 37.5% | 34.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 46.7% | 34.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 20.0% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 30.0% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 30.8% | 29.7% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs Duke | L | 29.4% | 31.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 8.3% | 36.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.