Virginia’s third-down conversion rate with Peyton Lewis and since Peyton Lewis’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia was 15.9 percentage points under with Peyton Lewis and 5.4 percentage points under since Peyton Lewis’ last game over its last 25 games, 1 game against 7. The plain averages are 35.7% and 29.0%, a difference of 6.8%. All 3 away games were since Peyton Lewis’ last game. Both ranked opponents were since Peyton Lewis’ last game. All 7 games on a normal week were since Peyton Lewis’ last game.
Peyton Lewis, running back: 17 rushing yards and 10 carries in 2 of those 25 games.
2 games with Peyton Lewis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +6.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Peyton Lewis vs since Peyton Lewis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs SMU | L | 20.0% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 38.5% | 34.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 50.0% | 46.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ NC State | L | 68.4% | 44.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs William & Mary | W | 56.3% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 53.8% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs Florida State | W | 53.8% | 44.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 40.0% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 33.3% | 44.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ North Carolina | W | 38.9% | 46.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ California | W | 52.6% | 45.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Wake Forest | L | 21.4% | 44.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 63.2% | 44.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 50.0% | 47.0% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsDuke (neutral) | L | 46.7% | 46.5% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Missouri (neutral) | W | 56.5% | 38.9% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsNC State | W | 21.4% | 37.3% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | 37.5% | 34.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 46.7% | 34.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Florida State | L | 20.0% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 30.0% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SMU | L | 30.8% | 29.7% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsDuke | L | 29.4% | 31.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Wake Forest | L | 8.3% | 36.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Peyton Lewis nor since Peyton Lewis’ last game: Peyton Lewis had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.