Virginia’s third-down conversion rate with Noah Vaughn and without Noah Vaughn
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia was 0.2 percentage points under with Noah Vaughn and 0.9 percentage points under without Noah Vaughn over its last 25 games, 12 games against 11. The plain averages are 39.4% and 42.4%, a difference of 3.0%. Expected was 6.0 percentage points lower with Noah Vaughn than without Noah Vaughn. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Noah Vaughn.
Noah Vaughn, running back: 375 rushing yards, 67 carries and 6 receptions in 12 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +0.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Noah Vaughn vs without Noah Vaughn is about what you’d expect.
A −3.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Noah Vaughn vs without Noah Vaughn is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs SMU | L | 20.0% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 38.5% | 34.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 50.0% | 46.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ NC State | L | 68.4% | 44.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs William & Mary | W | 56.3% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 53.8% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs Florida State | W | 53.8% | 44.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 40.0% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 33.3% | 44.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ North Carolina | W | 38.9% | 46.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ California | W | 52.6% | 45.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Wake Forest | L | 21.4% | 44.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 63.2% | 44.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 50.0% | 47.0% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsDuke (neutral) | L | 46.7% | 46.5% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Missouri (neutral) | W | 56.5% | 38.9% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsNC State | W | 21.4% | 37.3% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | 37.5% | 34.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 46.7% | 34.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Florida State | L | 20.0% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 30.0% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SMU | L | 30.8% | 29.7% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsDuke | L | 29.4% | 31.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Wake Forest | L | 8.3% | 36.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- William & Mary, Norfolk State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 17 of these 25 games; in the other 8 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.